It’s Over

 It is Over

The GOP needs a better candidate

 

The former president’s legal problems continue to mount. There were three recent and significant developments in his various criminal cases that spell the end of his candidacy for President in 2024.

 

The judge in the D.C. criminal case brought by special counsel Jack Smith issued a protective order largely tracking what the prosecution requested that substantially limits the former president’s ability to try his case in the media or use the power of the pulpit to influence or intimidate those who might hear the case or testify against him. He can only comment on evidence already made public in other proceedings. He cannot share or keep copies of the documents the prosecutor shares with his defense team. He cannot make public statements about potential witnesses, the prosecution team members or court personnel. These are usual limits in federal criminal cases and violations will be dealt with promptly and harshly. The former occupant of the White House has a hard time keeping his mouth shut about those who cross him, and I expect he will see the inside of a jail cell if he violates the terms of the order. 

 

The next shoe to drop was the draft of a law review article written by two leading conservative Republican law professors, one of whom is a co-founder of the Federalist Society which recruits and trains conservative judges, promotes conservative judicial candidates and provides legal research that in used to promote conservative values and positions. The current “originalist” philosophy used by conservative jurists to interpret the Constitution only to determine what the founding fathers meant when drafting laws originated in the Federalist Society. All the former president’s judicial appointments to the Supreme Court are Federalist members, as are Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito. 

 

The draft law review article traces the origins of Article Three of the Fourteenth Amendment which reads as follows:

 

“No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any state, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any state legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any state, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.”

 

The authors conclude this provision is self-executing which means the former president does not have to be convicted of “insurrection” or giving aid to the enemies of the Republic to be declared ineligible to hold the office of president, even if elected. What this means is that state election officials can determine he is not eligible for a place on the ballot, even if he wins his party’s primary elections or is nominated to run at its convention. All they must conclude, based upon available evidence is that he “engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof.” The burden would then switch to him to prove in a court of law that he did not do either of those things before he could appear on the ballot. Should enough states prevent him from appearing on their 2024 election ballots to preclude him being able to secure the necessary electoral votes, his candidacy would be over. Republicans in Congress do not have the numbers to remove this disability. For a party claiming legitimacy under the Constitution, this is a hard mountain to climb.

 

The final blow to the former president’s political life is the indictment issued by a grand jury in Georgia. This state court proceeding, unlike the federal cases in Washington, D.C. and Florida, is not subject to a presidential pardon or interference by the Federal Government. The indictment charges the former president and 18 of his lawyers and aides of illegally trying to change the results of the presidential election that Joe Biden won in Georgia. It uses a legal proceeding used to go after large scale criminal enterprises such as organized crime families and street gangs.

 

The Georgia indictment tracks much of the now familiar evidence of the former president and his legal team to get Georgia officials to change the result of Georgia’s election win for Biden. It alleges a broad conspiracy to send slates of fake electors from Georgia and other states to Congress and have then Vice-President Mike Pence recognize them instead of the legally constituted electors when certifying the Electoral College vote. It also charges perjury, voting machine tampering and other criminal acts. The indictment lists 161 specific acts the former president or his co-conspirators took to further their scheme to steal the presidential election in Georgia and elsewhere. 

 

These developments clearly lead rational observers on the right and left to conclude that the GOP needs to pick someone other than the former president to challenge President Biden next year. If only the hard right who control the GOP could see the light.